The market, by the numbers.

61M → 82M

U.S. adults aged 65+, today versus 2050 — from roughly 18% of the population toward nearly a quarter.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

89.9%

U.S. senior housing occupancy in Q2 2026 — 15 of 31 primary markets at or above 90%, and the 19th straight quarter in which absorption outpaced inventory growth.

Source: NIC MAP (Q2 2026)

12M → 19.8M

U.S. adults 85+ — the core assisted living cohort — projected to grow from ~12M in 2030 to ~19.8M by 2050, roughly tripling from today's ~6M.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

7:1 → <3:1

The family caregiver support ratio (adults 45–64 per person 80+) falls from 7:1 in 2010 to under 3:1 by 2050 — structurally shifting care from unpaid family to paid providers.

Source: AARP Public Policy Institute

4.18M

Americans turning 65 in 2025 — about 11,400 per day, the highest on record ('Peak 65'); older adults already outnumber children in 11 states.

Source: Alliance for Lifetime Income / U.S. Census Bureau

7.4M → 13.8M

Americans 65+ living with Alzheimer's dementia today versus 2060 — a near-doubling that makes memory care the fastest-growing senior housing segment.

Source: Alzheimer's Association, 2026 Facts and Figures

$409B → ~$1T

Annual U.S. dementia health and long-term care costs, 2026 versus 2050 — alongside 19B hours of unpaid dementia care worth an estimated $446B in 2025, a monetized proxy for latent paid-care demand.

Source: Alzheimer's Association, 2026 Facts and Figures

1%

Senior housing inventory growth in 2025 — the lowest since tracking began in 2006, deepening the supply-demand imbalance.

Source: NIC MAP

~31,000

Professionally managed U.S. assisted living communities housing nearly 1.4M residents; counts reach ~41,500 under broader state licensure definitions. No operator holds a dominant national share.

Source: Argentum (2026) / NCAL / CDC NCHS

88.4%

Assisted living occupancy in Q2 2026, within a senior housing market at 89.9% overall; the AL–IL occupancy spread is the narrowest since 2014.

Source: NIC MAP (Q2 2026)

~550K

Projected senior housing unit shortfall by 2030 — a ~$275B investment gap; Q1 2025 construction starts (~1,076 units) were the lowest since 2009.

Source: NIC MAP Vision

~5%

Assisted living rent growth year over year — ahead of independent living (~4%) and well above the ~3% long-term average.

Source: NIC MAP

$25B

U.S. senior housing transaction volume in 2025 — among the strongest years on record; acquisition activity expected to remain elevated through 2026.

Source: NIC MAP

6–8×

Commonly cited lower-middle-market transaction multiple range (EBITDA) for assisted living operations. Illustrative benchmark; real-estate-included deals price on cap rates.

Source: Industry transaction benchmarks

Continuum of care

Large operators integrate vertically across the care continuum: among top-25 nursing operators, an estimated ~80% also offer assisted living and outpatient therapy, ~76% hospice, ~52% home care, and ~40% pharmacy — the multi-vertical playbook this platform follows.

Source: Industry operator analyses (commonly cited)

1%

Inventory growth in 2025 — a two-decade low. New construction starts remain depressed, extending the supply-demand imbalance into the 2030s.

Source: NIC MAP

4.3M

Home health and personal care aides employed in the U.S. as of May 2025 — the single largest occupation in the country, at a median wage of $17.21/hour (~$35,800/year).

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (OEWS, May 2025)

75%

Median annual caregiver turnover at U.S. home care agencies in 2024 — improved from the 81.6% peak but still the sector's defining constraint; retention capability is the acquirer's largest value-creation lever.

Source: Activated Insights 2025 Benchmarking Report

~30%

Share of U.S. direct-care aides who are immigrants (820,000+ workers) — making labor supply sensitive to 2025–2026 immigration policy shifts and reinforcing the advantage of scaled employers.

Source: KFF (April 2025) / PHI

+17%

Projected employment growth for home health and personal care aides, 2024–2034 — with ~765,800 openings per year, far above the all-occupation average.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

#1 sector

Healthcare and social assistance is projected to be the fastest-growing U.S. employment sector through 2034 (+8.4%, ~2M jobs).

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

23–25%

Share of Canada's population projected to be seniors (65+) by 2036, up from roughly 19% today.

Source: Statistics Canada / CIHI

2×

Canada's 75+ population — the heaviest users of home care and residential care — is projected to double by 2037.

Source: CIHI

1 in 10

Canadian seniors aged 75+ live in residential care, with capacity constraints pushing policy and funding toward home-based alternatives.

Source: CIHI

199,000

Additional long-term care beds Canada needs by 2035 — nearly doubling existing stock, requiring an estimated $64B in capital spending: a structural capacity gap private operators help fill.

Source: Conference Board of Canada / Canadian Medical Association

~160

Communities operated by Chartwell, Canada's largest senior living operator (~25,000 residents) — a small fraction of national capacity, underscoring how fragmented the market remains.

Source: Senior Housing News / Chartwell disclosures

US$15.7B

Canada senior living market in 2025, projected to reach ~US$22B by 2031 (5.8% CAGR) — steady, demographics-backed growth.

Source: Mordor Intelligence

~2,000+

Publicly funded long-term care homes tracked nationally — 627 in Ontario alone, where 57% are private for-profit and 27% not-for-profit. Retirement homes and home care agencies add thousands more licensed operators on top.

Source: CIHI

750+ / 60K

Licensed retirement homes in Ontario alone, housing 60,000+ residents under RHRA regulation — the private-pay universe a consolidator operates within; licensure is province by province, raising the value of multi-provincial platforms.

Source: RHRA / provincial regulators

~8,200

Home health care services establishments in Canada, fewer than 2,000 with employees — a highly fragmented base of acquirable operators; for-profits earn ~63% of sector revenue.

Source: ISED Canadian Industry Statistics / Statistics Canada (2025)

93%

Canadian seniors housing occupancy at year-end 2025 — above pre-pandemic levels and on pace for ~95% by end of 2026, with rents up 3–6% and construction starts below 1% of inventory for a third straight year.

Source: Cushman & Wakefield (2026)

$2B + $1.1B

Ontario's stacked multi-year home care funding commitments (2024 budget plus fall 2025 economic statement), which the province credits with an 18% two-year rise in patients accessing home care — a direct tailwind for contracted providers.

Source: Government of Ontario